Ad Effectiveness Calculator

Measure advertising performance with conversion probability analysis and campaign simulations

💰 Campaign Parameters

Revenue per converted client ($)
Total leads from campaign
Total advertising budget ($)
Converted leads

📊 Performance Analysis

Conversion Probability (p̂)
7.5%
Leads to clients conversion rate
EV per Lead
$2.50
Expected value per lead
ROAS
150%
Return on Ad Spend
Total Profit
$2,500
Revenue minus ad spend
Standard Error (SE)
0.008
Conversion rate variability
95% Confidence Interval
6.3% - 8.7%
Conversion probability range
99% Confidence Interval
5.9% - 9.1%
Conversion probability range
Cost Per Acquisition
$66.67
Cost per converted client

Conversion Probability Distribution

Campaign Simulation ($1000 Budget)

How the Campaign Simulation Works

  1. Calculate cost per lead: CPL = M / L
  2. Determine leads from $1000 budget: Leads = 1000 / CPL
  3. Generate random conversion count using binomial distribution: P_sim ~ Binomial(Leads, p̂)
  4. Calculate profit: Profit = (P_sim × C) - 1000
  5. Repeat 20 times to show outcome distribution

Key Metrics:

EV per Lead = (P × C - M) / L
ROAS = (P × C) / M
Confidence Interval = p̂ ± Z × √[p̂(1-p̂)/L]

The simulation shows the range of PROBABLE outcomes when running THE SAME campaign with a $1000 budget. Each bar represents one possible scenario based on current conversion probability.